
Pinpointing how the Bears got into this predicament -- needing the Atlanta Falcons to beat the Minnesota Vikings today to keep their best playoff hope alive -- isn't all that difficult.
They made a wrong turn on the road against the Carolina Panthers, a wrong turn at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and a wrong turn on the road against the Atlanta Falcons, losing three games to NFC South foes in stunning fashion.
The seeds for those failures -- they squandered double-digit leads in two of those games -- were born a long time ago, and the biggest issue isn't what went wrong, but why things haven't gone right for the Bears since their loss in Super Bowl XLI 22 1/2 months ago.
The Bears will be looking for their first three-game winning streak since 2006 when the Green Bay Packers visit Soldier Field on Monday night. But they have concerns that go beyond this game, such as where the franchise is headed less than two years from being on the biggest stage.
The Super Bowl hangover has been well-documented since the the New York Giants lost to the Baltimore Ravens in 2000. The New England Patriots' season is hanging in the balance with two games left, but six of the previous seven Super Bowl losers failed to make the playoffs the next season. Generally, that hangover has lasted only one season. If the Bears don't reach the postseason, they will join the Oakland Raiders as the only recent Super Bowl loser not to make it back to the playoffs two seasons after losing the big game.
The failures have been across the board. Here's a look: Front office Two years removed from his 52-yard run in the Super Bowl, Thomas Jones is headed to the Pro Bowl with the New York Jets. The Bears have invested heavily at the position since Jones signed with the team in 2004, drafting Cedric Benson with the fourth overall pick in 2005, using a third-round choice on Garrett Wolfe in 2007 and drafting Matt Forte in the second round this year. If Forte had not turned out to be such a good player, a lot of people would be wondering why there has been such turnover at a position that apparently had been solved. Quite simply, the draft picks could have been used to address other needs.
That comes down to evaluation, both of players on the roster and those in the draft. Jones helped get the Bears to the Super Bowl, and it was no secret he was a crucial part of the team, a guy Rex Grossman once called the ''heart and soul'' of the offense. Benson was released because of character concerns but could have been let go because of injury concerns or lack of production. That's evaluation.
The Bears haven't been the draft-driven team they claim to be because their draft picks haven't been good enough. In the span of 25 days this summer, they cut two former second-round picks (Mark Bradley and Dan Bazuin) and a former third-round pick (Mike Okwo). Since coach Lovie Smith arrived in 2004, the Bears have drafted four players who will start on offense and three who will start on defense Monday. In all, the Bears will have 10 starters in the game who have been selected by general manager Jerry Angelo since 2002.
Coaches With the Falcons trailing by one and on their own 44-yard line with six seconds left, all the Bears had to do was keep them from completing a pass that would gain about 20 yards and allow them to stop the clock for a field-goal try. But Michael Jenkins caught a pass and got out of bounds before safety Mike Brown could arrive, gaining 26 yards and stopping the clock with one second left. Jason Elam's 48-yard field goal sunk the Bears to 3-3 at a time when they claimed -- and rightfully so -- to be a few plays away from being 6-0.
The problem is, Jenkins' route exploited one of the holes in the Tampa-2 defense. As thorough as the defense is, there is a rail on the sideline about 20 yards downfield that is hard for the cornerback to cover if there is any underneath threat. If he freezes for just a split-second, it's going to create an opening that will be difficult for the safety to take away. A defense that closes that window along the sideline would have put the players in a better position to succeed.
The Bears predominantly are in cover-2 on third-and-long or spots such as this one, and it hasn't served them well. According to Stats Inc., they rank 25th on third-and-10 or longer, allowing the big plays the scheme is designed to prevent.
Players Take your pick here: - Robbie Gould's squib kick put the Falcons in position to make one play and kick a field goal. It was a good call against a dangerous return man in Jerious Norwood, but the execution was poor. If the kick would have traveled 15 yards farther, it would have taken a field goal out of play.
- Tight end Greg Olsen lost two fumbles against the Panthers. The first came when the Bears were approaching the red zone with a 7-0 lead in the first quarter. The second set up the Panthers with premium field position in the third quarter, and they converted to cut into the Bears' 17-6 lead.
- The most unnerving mistake had to be the mental lapse by cornerback Charles Tillman, who was penalized 15 yards for taking a swing at Bucs right tackle Jeremy Trueblood. The Bucs were facing fourth down from their own 10-yard line in overtime and would have had to punt and give the Bears the ball around midfield. Instead, the penalty moved the ball out to the 25 and enabled the Bucs to continue on their winning drive.
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Super Bowl hangovers
Since the New York Giants lost to the Baltimore Ravens after the 2000 season, the Super Bowl loser has had
a tough time bouncing back the next season. But most teams have rebounded with a playoff berth two years removed from the Super Bowl, something the Bears are having a difficult time doing. Here's a look at Super Bowl losers since the 2000 season, with record in first season after Super Bowl loss, record in second season after Super Bowl loss and whether the team made the playoffs in second season:
YEAR
Team
Year after
Two after
Playoffs
2000
Giants
7-9
10-6
WC
2001
Rams
7-9
12-4
DC
2002
Raiders
4-12
5-11
No
2003
Panthers
7-9
11-5
WC
2004
Eagles
6-10
10-6
DC
2005
Seahawks
9-7
10-6
DC
2006
Bears
7-9
8-6
2007
Patriots
9-5
WC: wild-card team second season after Super Bowl loss; DC: division champs second season after Super Bowl loss